The world is abuzzzzzzzz with tariffs :)
Markets have see-sawed, a host of international leaders have made a stream of appearances at the White House and in general there has been a lot of questions in the trading community (to put it mildly).
We have often heard the phrase that "Tariffs is a beautiful word". Let's delve into this beautiful world and discover the world unknown to most of us.
It has taken many many decades to get to the state of world economy that we have today. There are two key moments from the past ten lustrums. The first one is United States deciding in 1971 to no longer peg the value of the dollar to gold. This had lasted from 1945 to 1971 and was known as Bretton Woods era. During this time the value of dollar was pegged to gold and the value of other currencies was pegged to the dollar. In 1971, United States decided to no longer peg the dollar to the value of gold. The reasons behind this is like opening a Pandora's box and we will save that for another rainy day :)
The second one is China being accepted into the World Trade Organization. This happened on December 11th, 2001. This led to China being able to access markets around the world. As such, China was open for firms to invest in the country and get access to the local market. China used its might in manufacturing and low cost labor and specialized skills to become the world's manufacturing hub. As such China exported a lot more to the world than it imported. Now, this is a sliver of the trade imbalance that exists between the developed countries around the world and the developing countries.
What does all this have to do with tariffs?
Tariff by definition is a tax. It is a tax that must be paid before a good is brought into the country. This tax is paid by the importer. Many countries have adopted tariffs when it comes to protecting their own economies. South Korea imposed tariffs on import of cars into the country. These tariffs were imposed in 80s. Today's Kia and Hyundai and their global presence is mainly due to the then government imposing tariffs on imports. This led to local companies investing in the technology, skills and equipment to design, build and deliver cars to cater to the demand of the population. As their skills and expertise grew, these companies became better and better on building cars and today Kia and Hyundai are global powerhouses when it comes to car manufacturing.
India is another country that has used tariffs to protect its own economy. India is well aware that they have a population that a lot of companies would love to have access to and sell their products. Take automobile/motorcycles for example. India has a tariff of 110 percent of any motor vehicle imported into the country. This has led to many global companies setting up factories in country and producing vehicles that cater to needs of local population and in some instances exporting too. While India has been unable to develop global powerhouses such as Kia and Hyundai, they nevertheless have homegrown companies such as Mahindra and Tata motors that are well respected within the country.
We get an idea of what tariffs are used for. Isn't it a beautiful word? 😚
So what does the end of Bretton Woods area have to do with tariffs and the trade imbalance we see today? It gave rise to the floating exchange rate system.The exchange rate is determined by the supply and demand for the currency in the foreign exchange market. We are all well aware of the demand for United States dollar in the foreign exchange market. This has led to a huge disparity in terms of the exchange rate for local currencies in developing market against the dollar.
Now there is a caveat. Some countries do not let their currency value determined by the floating exchange rate system. They fix it. China is a well known example of fixing the value of yuan against the dollar. They do this primarily to benefit their exports. Bangladesh is another country that has fixed the value of their currency against the dollar to benefit their exports. Currently Bangladesh exports almost $9 billion worth of goods to the United States and they import approx $2.9 billion worth of goods from the United States. This leads to a trade imbalance of approximately $6.1 billion.
Now you see where we are going with this? If only all countries had pegged the value of their currency against the dollar.... smh!
So how do we fix the trade imbalance? We will save that for part 2.
I'll give you a hint though - John Maynard Keynes.